Every year, the Dutch cabinet has its climate plans recalculated. Compared to last year, the goal of 55 percent less greenhouse gas emissions in 2030 seems to be really feasible for the first time if all goes well. This is partly thanks to new tax measures aimed at horticulture, according to the latest Klimaat- en Energieverkenning (Climate and Energy Outlook or KEV) from the Planbureau voor de Leefomgeving (Environmental Assessment Agency or PBL).
In the KEV, PBL outlines how the government expects to meet the targets. In agriculture and horticulture, emissions fall mainly due to policy changes in horticulture and livestock and arable farming.
Tax measures
The additional policy plans from the spring package that have an impact on energy consumption in agriculture and horticulture all focus on the horticulture sector, PBL notes. These include the already announced abolition of the reduced rate for natural gas use in boilers and the restriction in the exemption for natural gas use in CHP plants.
Both fiscal measures should start in 2025 and be fully implemented by 2030. These measures make the largest contribution to the lower 2030 estimate for agricultural energy consumption in this 2023 KEV compared to the 2022 KEV.
CO2 tax
The government also wants to introduce a flat CO2 levy on the total natural gas consumption of growers from 2025 onwards. The annual level of this levy has yet to be determined. Therefore, this CO2 levy is not included in this KEV.
For the Netherlands as a whole, PBL points out that the climate targets are achievable. After the latest calculations, a 46 to 57 percent reduction is possible. After the necessary calculations*, PBL estimates greenhouse gas emissions from horticulture in 2030 at 2.9 to 6.0 megaton CO2 equivalents. The target, as set this spring, is 4.3 megatons. This makes the target achievable, but PBL says it is 'still uncertain' whether the target will be met.
*Literally translated from the KEV 2023:
From this KEV 2023, based on measures for which an impact estimate could be made, an estimate of CO2 emissions in 2030 for agriculture of 2.8 to 5.6 megatonnes of CO2 follows. To estimate CO2 emissions from horticulture separately, we have to subtract CO2 emissions from energy consumption in other agriculture and CO2 emissions from indirect sources (0.4 to 0.6 megatonnes CO2). We then have to add 0.5 to 1.0 megaton CO2 equivalents to emissions from methane slip from natural gas consumption in CHP plants. This puts the estimated range for greenhouse gas emissions for horticulture in 2030 at 2.9 to 6.0 megaton CO2 equivalents. This means that the (residual) emission target of 4.3 megatons from the spring package is within the range, but that it is still uncertain whether that target will be met.