There's an old saying about systems where the tools and the opportunity never quite line up. It's usually meant as a joke, but it stops being funny when you see it play out in real markets. US cannabis has lived in that gap for years, with increasing policy movement on one side and structural constraints that refuse to budge on the other.
Anthony Coniglio, CEO of NewLake Capital Partners, watches that disconnect up close. Running a net-lease REIT focused entirely on cannabis real estate puts him at the intersection of capital markets, regulators and operators. "We buy properties from and for cannabis operators," Anthony says. "That structure lets our partners focus their capital on running their business."
NewLake is now the second-largest owner of cannabis properties in the US, and Anthony says consistency matters more than size. "If you show up about serving your constituency, the business is going to flow to you," he remarks.
Rescheduling is not the endgame
On the policy side, Anthony views federal rescheduling as a meaningful step, yet far from the cannabis endgame "Rescheduling is positive," he says. "The 280E elements are important. It's a big step toward normalization, especially when it comes to access to capital." That normalization, however, has limits. "What it doesn't do is remove the structural barriers to making those investments," Anthony points out. "You still need follow-on legislation."
It might not come as a surprise, but SAFE Banking remains central to that conversation. "We need the right safe harbor," he says. "Not only for banks, but for the exchanges as well."
According to Anthony, interest in cannabis is already returning, though cautiously. "There's new interest coming to the table," he said. "It's real but modest compared to the full opportunity you get once the capital markets fully open."
He expects the next phase to unfold unevenly. "Some people will be willing to take the risk and get in earlier," Anthony says. "Others will wait for the effective date of the federal rule. And then you have the largest group, the ones who simply can't execute yet because of internal constraints."
Custody rules, compliance requirements, and institutional processes will slow adoption even after rescheduling is finalized. "Not every custody bank moves at the same pace," he says. "It takes time for this stuff to work its way through the system."
CBD leading cannabis institutional recognition
Anthony sees a deeper, longer-term impact on the medical side of cannabis, with rescheduling opening the door to regulated research and federally recognized clinical trials, starting with CBD. "The government is talking about plant-based medicine," Anthony says. "It starts with CBD." However, those trials are not quick. "This is years of work, but it's how you get real data. Not anecdotal data, but clinical trial data that shows efficacy and how cannabinoids actually work."
Cannabis operators may be uniquely positioned to participate in that process. "Pharma companies create the drug and then go find patients," he says. "Cannabis companies already have the product and the patients." As usual, the challenge is execution. "How do you take that and turn it into a clinical trial that can be submitted to the FDA?" he asks. "That's where partnerships between growers and pharma could come in."
On hemp-derived products and synthetic cannabinoids, Anthony is welcoming the increased legislators' scrutiny on this space. "Based on what I've seen across the states, there's very little appetite from politicians to let synthetic THC continue." State-level bans are increasing, and enforcement is tightening. "We're going to see those synthetic products removed. When that happens, it's positive for the regulated industry."
He draws a line between low-dose beverages and synthetic products sold outside licensed channels. "People seem okay with low-dose drinks," Anthony says. "The issue is really the synthetic products being sold at gas stations and smoke shops."
Across the broader industry, Anthony points to resilience rather than momentum. "This industry has worked incredibly hard just to make it work," he said. "Declining revenue, margin compression, increased competition, regulation. It's a very hard landscape." Operators have adjusted accordingly. "People have made tough decisions," he said. "They've right-sized headcount. Some are surviving, and some are thriving." That process is not finished. "We're going to continue to see workouts across the industry. There's no turning back from that."
Still, he expects some pressure to ease in the second half of the year. "As synthetic products recede, some sales will move back into the legal market," he said. "Not all of them, but some." For Anthony, rescheduling is part of a longer arc. "Federal recognition that cannabis is medicine matters," he said. "It supports product expansion, acceptance, and eventually new markets."
For more information:
NewLake Capital
www.newlake.com
